Complacency: Letting your Guard Down after Irene?

Complacency is an interesting phenomenon. It usually occurs after great success. Ever wonder why so few pro teams "3 peat"? It's because they couldn't "repeat." Why? Because they become complacent. In our business - that of disaster response and emergency management - complacent kills.

In NOLA, most of the folks who died had the attitude that they could "ride this one out", just as they and their parents had all the "other storms." Complacency, writ large.

So, here we are, on 8/28/2011 - one day shy of the 6th anniversary of Katrina. Irene is literally passing my front door right now, here in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. We've had 7 inches of rain since 10AM (ok, I could have been up earlier, but WHY?), and the wind is till puffing about. 15 lives lost have been contributed to this storm, and who knows how much property damage? 4 million people are without power (which, for those of you who haven't spent a few days without power, really sucks) and flooding is all over. But, you know what? NO ONE WAS COMPLACENT! Everyone took this seriously.

That said, since it wasn't "so bad," will the same folks along the east Coast take the next storm seriously? Will folks evacuate, when told, in the face of the next, inevitable, storm? Man, I truly hope so.

In 2008, my team and I were back in NOLA, helping to execute an evacuation plan which, 2 years earlier, we helped to write. We got out everyone that needed to get out.

Then, the storm went around us.

Mayor Nagin, at that time, like Mayor Bloomberg, this time, made a very hard and costly decision. Made in the spirit of saving lives. I was also in Mexico City when Mayor Marcelo Ebrard made the tough decision to shut that giant city down, when faced with H1N1 - again, to save lives.

But, it turns out, none of those events turned out to be as bad as the "hype" made them seem.

So, what about next time?

My guess? People will die. They will die because of complacency. That John Wayne attitude that says, "How bad can it be? I survived the last one!"

As I write this, there are several new storm systems developing in the Atlantic and one predicted for the Gulf of Mexico. We are not yet at the peak of Hurricane Season 2011. We've just had a 5.9 earthquake on the EAST COAST.

Seriously, Are You Ready?

Or are you COMPLACENT?

Hurricanes and Earthquakes

Last year, I gave a presentation on the probable impacts of a Cat 3 storm hitting NYC. Well, today we are faced with a possibility of all that occurring. Here are a few points from my presentation:


According to a 1995 study, a category three hurricane on a worst-case track could create a surge of up to 25 feet at JFK Airport, 21 feet at the Lincoln Tunnel entrance, 24 feet at the Battery, and 16 feet at La Guardia Airport. These figures do not include the effects of tides nor the additional heights of waves on top of the surge.

In the event of a hurricane, authorities would focus their efforts on moving those in low-lying areas of the city- roughly 3.3 million people- to higher ground.  However, New York can provide shelter for only 800,000 people, leaving the potential of more than 2 million people to fend for themselves. 

A category 3 storm would put Wall Street under 10 feet of water in moments, its winds would turn skyscrapers into perilous wind tunnels. 

A major hurricane in New York would create a national setback of enormous proportions. 

So, what about earthquakes? In NYC? Yep, very possible and has already happened -

The city can expect a magnitude 5 quake, which is strong enough to cause damage, once every 100 years, according to the report addressed in the following link. (Magnitude is a measure of the energy released at the source of an earthquake.) The scientists also calculate that a magnitude 6, which is 10 times larger, has a 7 percent chance of happening once every 50 years and a magnitude 7 quake, 100 times larger, a 1.5 percent chance.

http://www.gothamgazette.com/article/iotw/20080929/200/2660



So, the question is, ARE YOU READY?